Baselice & Associates (PDF) (5/20-25, registered voters, April in parens):
Rick Noriega (D): 33 (34)
John Cornyn (R-inc): 49 (49)
Unsure: 16
(MoE: ±3.1%)
Baselice may be a Republican firm, but these numbers somehow “feel” a bit more on-target than the previous pair of polls by Rasmussen and Research 2000 that showed Noriega only behind by 3 or 4 points. But I say that without popping the hood and digging around with the poll’s crosstabs.
Still, the important point here is Cornyn under 50, which this poll confirms. However, if Noriega hopes to close that gap (however large it may be), he better get ready to report a multi-million dollar fundraising quarter at the end of June.
What struck me most about the Rasmussen and R2000/Kos polls was how Noriega could be doing so well with such low name recognition. It just does not seem plausible, particularly in Texas. Still, I bet it is somewhere in between, maybe Cornyn +12. I am more willing to believe that Kentucky is close as (1) the state leans more to the Dem side than Texas; and (2) Lunsford is much more well known statewide than Noriega.
My memory may not be entirely accurate, but in 2002 I seem to recall that polls throughout much of the election had the race between Cornyn and Kirk very tight — with a very late poll showing Kirk only down a single point — before Cornyn ultimately won by something like 12 percent. My thinking is that Cornyn, mostly because he is such a lousy politican, leader, campaigner, and Senator, polls poorly before being put over the finish line by having the ‘R’ next to his name.
I think this race is promising, but at this point it certainly goes way down the line of possible takeovers, probably around Kentucky. Noriega is going to need raise a heckuva lot as Cornyn has banked several brinks trucks already.
They probably didn’t push undecided voters hard.(in order to help themselves inflate the number) I bet that accounts for the difference in the private republican poll and the other polling companies.
Probably accounts for the fact that people don’t know Noriega and are just voting straight party line in these polls but when you push the undecided I bet this number is within 5 pts.